Why we built this
Every brand director we have spoken to in the last 30 days has asked some version of the same question: Colombia, Mexico, or Vietnam — what does the math actually look like now?
The answer depends on what you make, where you ship, and how fast you replenish. We are publishing the version we use internally to model client quotes. It is not perfect — every brand has carve-outs — but it is the starting baseline most VP Sourcing teams are missing.
The comparative table
Reference values for a 1,000-unit cut-and-sew order, mid-complexity garment (resort wear, athleisure, swim, casual). Air freight to LA or Miami.
| Variable | Colombia | Mexico | Vietnam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Effective tariff Q2 2026 | 10% Section 122 | 10% (USMCA partial) | 10% (volatility risk) |
| Underlying treaty | CTPA (yarn-forward) | USMCA | MFN |
| FOB cost vs China baseline | +8-12% | +5-9% | -5 to +3% |
| Air freight (kg) | $3.20-4.10 | $2.60-3.40 | $5.80-7.50 |
| Lead time door-to-door | 5-7 days | 3-5 days | 18-25 days |
| Time zone overlap (NYC) | 0 hours | 0-1 hours | 11-12 hours |
| English-first comms | Moderate | Variable | Variable |
| Capacity Q3 2026 | Open | Tightening | Saturated |
| Grid carbon intensity | Low (70% hydro) | Medium | High (65% coal) |
How to read the table
If your priority is the lowest possible FOB cost, Vietnam still wins on per-piece price. The catch: 18 to 25 day lead times mean you carry inventory risk for a full extra month, and tariff volatility is the highest of the three.
If your priority is the fastest possible turnaround, Mexico wins on lead time. The catch: USMCA carve-outs mean some categories (notably synthetics in specific HS codes) do not qualify for preferential treatment, and capacity in the Western Hemisphere is tightening fastest there.
If your priority is the best balance of cost, speed, capacity, and tariff predictability, Colombia is the trade. The catch: FOB cost is mid-pack, and English fluency varies by manufacturer. The mitigation is choosing a partner that operates English-first by default.
The variable that matters most in May 2026
Capacity. McKinsey reported a 35% increase in apparel sourcing costs over the past 12 months. AlixPartners reported that 70% of North American apparel executives plan to increase nearshoring exposure over the next five years.
Both of those numbers point at the same outcome: the brands that lock in capacity for fall 2026 in Q2 are paying 2025 rates. The brands that wait until Q3 are paying 2027 rates, in 2026.
A starter framework
Run a parallel sample in two countries on the same tech pack. Compare landed cost, lead time, defect rate, and communication quality on the same product. The cost of two samples is small. The cost of locking into the wrong country for a full season is large.
If you want our version of this spreadsheet with the underlying assumptions visible, we send it on request. No form, no email gate. Just write to us and we will share.